Supply Excellence

“New Normal” does not equal “No Growth”

January 27th, 2010 · by Kris Colby · 2 Comments · On Demand/SaaS, best practices, supply management, supply market dynamics, supply risk

Regardless of who might have authorship rights (Pimco? Ariba? Others?), the concept of “The New Normal” has definitely caught on in both the mainstream media and spend management circles .

However, it’s important to remember that “the New Normal” doesn’t translate directly to “permanent low GDP growth” as has been put forth by some investment advisors.

Instead, the New Normal is characterized by several trends that will, over time, become “SOP” for most large organizations:

1. Increased need for agility to respond more quickly to rapid change whether that’s in commodity markets, geopolitical supply risk, regulatory environments, or good old-fashioned competition.

2. Fewer permanent resources and increased reliance on your community of business partners. Let’s face it, many of the people laid off during the Recession aren’t coming back or at least not in the same capacity. But there’s even more to do. That means increased productivity and relying more heavily on your business partners and suppliers to do things that in the past might have been done internally

3. Reluctance to make large upfront investments with long payback times. Good luck with talking your CFO into any “$25M now and ROI in 48 months” business cases. ROI, especially in technology investments, needs to be measurable in weeks and months, not quarters and years.

Surely, these are all challenges, but none mean “low growth forever”. Companies that can learn how to respond and scale quickly will have plenty of opportunities to deliver value to both customers and shareholders.

So, don’t let the New Normal get you down. Growth will return like it always does. Instead, look at this new environment as an opportunity for your organization to get in front of the curve provided you’ve got the speed, agility, capabilities and community to grab it.

Kris Colby is a Director in Ariba’s Spend Management Services group. Kris specializes in strategic sourcing and risk reduction for multinational organizations.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Tim // Jan 28, 2010 at 7:18 am

    So, true. The so-called new state of normal for business is all about greater efficiency and productivity. Having been caught flat-footed with high infrastructure, resource, and inventory costs during this recession, companies are gun shy about taking on fixed costs and infrastructure. And the see-saw volatility of credit and supply markets have only made them more concerned.

    Recent surveys of CFOs (CFO Magazine) and CIOs (Baseline Magazine) indicate that these executives have taken significant costs out of their companies — either in the form of headcount or IT infrastructure…or both. And an overwhelming majority of these execs say they have no plans to bring these resources back. Instead, they are examining new operating models that balance internal resources and infrastructure with external capabilities — such as SaaS and cloud computing.

    This reliance on external partners and infrastructure is also behind a recent survey that found that CEOs (IBM Global CEO Survey) view improved process collaboration and alignment with external partners as the key competitive competency for the future.

    We have certainly entered a new normal; one where profitable growth will come, but from leaner and more agile operating models.

  • 2 Supply Chain NVQ // Jan 28, 2010 at 7:37 am

    I agree Tim, being Manager of logistics I am constantly striving to cut costs and improve efficiency, to the point where I am sure my team think I am OCD! I am always keen to look at new operating models because ultimately efficiency and keeping costs low is how I am judged in my job

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