The next few weeks will be full of interpretation of holiday retail  numbers. Are they up, down or flat? How about online sales? And the big, BIG question … what do the numbers show us about the state of the economy, consumer confidence and the prospects for a 2010 recovery?

The early returns are positive (if only slightly by some surveys) for Black Friday. And online sales over the weekend were up, leading to hopes that Cyber Monday will provide another bump today. But with per person spending averaging down, consumers may be bargain hunting more than usual. Case in point are the Zhu Zhu Pets, this season’s must-have toy, that cost under $10 (just for the record, you could buy an actual hamster on Craigslist for $5).

Georgetown University Professor Prashant Malaviya warns that any uptick in consumers spending may actually be the result of “frugal fatigue”, meaning people are simply tired of cutting back and have been lured by out of their spending slumber by deals and clever marketing.

Obviously with the massive role that consumer spending plays in the economy, a rebound in their confidence is key to the economic recovery. However if the operative terms for the holiday season are “frugal fatigue” and bargain hunting, it’s another sign that consumer confidence and the economy are not out of the woods yet.

Justin Fogarty is Managing Editor of Supply Excellence. For any questions or feedback on the blog or its contributors, Justin can be reached at jfogarty[at]ariba.com.