First, I gave you the Good News about the Global Economy from Professor Charlie Wheelan’s mainstage presentation this morning. Probably left you feeling pretty darn good about the state of the world. One big happy place full of potential for 6 billion enterprising souls.

Well, I hate to rain on the parade, but the Professor also warned of three very ominous looking clouds on the economic forecast…

1. Wage & Education Stagnation - The fact that median wages for high school dropouts in the US have dropped a staggering 27% is troubling news. But rather than site the usual suspect - outsourcing - Wheelan stated that it’s more due to the inability of the undereducated to add economic value in their jobs. Those people are then in danger of being replaced…by technology. Add in the education stagnation the Professor displayed (flat high school graduation rates and only small increases in college grads) and you can see two dangers on the horizon: further disparity of wealth in the US and more Americans losing their jobs to technology and outsourcing. There was a silver lining to this topic (unless you’re a supermarket checkout clerk or an airline that refuses to think about their passengers’ needs). Businesses that add value for their customers by thinking more holistically about how their product or services fits into their customers’ day are still poised to succeed.
2. Gas Tax “Holiday” (and other silly pandering policies) - I have yet to hear an economist who thinks the McCain/Clinton Gas Tax Holiday is a smart move. Professor Wheelan likened it to a family sitting around the kitchen table saying, “the family budget isn’t working, so let’s spend the college savings fund.” Ditching a tax that pays for infrastructure, deters consumption and provides needed revenue to deal with an economic problem - like oil/energy - that isn’t going away just does not compute to a quantitative, pragmatic, academic mind.
3. Entitlements - Like the Gas Tax Holiday, Professor Wheelan (and just about everyone else who’s looked at the projection that has entitlements eating up ALL of the Federal budget by 2040) says the math on entitlements does not add up. Professor Wheelan says that failure to address the financials, while still ensuring basic services to citizens and staying out the way of the private sector in the progress is both challenging and essential.

That Good and Bad news is the context that should shape the rest of the sessions here in Las Vegas. So, is the global economic glass half empty or half full? Give us your opinion in the Comments.
Justin Fogarty is the Managing Editor of Supply Excellence and will be covering Ariba LIVE 2008 from Las Vegas this week. If you have any questions or feedback about the site or event, you can contact Justin at jfogarty[at]ariba[dot]com.