Two years ago, when I suggested that a declining dollar and rising wage and capacity constraints in emerging markets could make the U.S. an attractive “low-cost” region for foreign manufacturers, most of you painted me as Chicken Little. Last year, I awoken your skepticism when I suggested that Detroit and regions of the South that had been abandoned by U.S. automakers for places like China and India would attract more foreign manufacturers due to a skilled and under-employed workforce, aggressive tax breaks, and proximity to the world’s biggest consumer market.
Yet, recent moves by European and Chinese automakers to set up shop on U.S. shores suggest that my predictions were, unfortunately, correct. BusinessWeek this morning reported from the North American International Auto Show (an oxymoron unto itself) that “European automakers, predicting the U.S. dollar will stay weak for several years, are getting more serious about ramping up manufacturing in the U.S.”
This week, European automakers Volvo, Audi, and Volkswagen all announced plans to set up or expand manufacturing plants in the U.S. Volkswagen lead the charge by committing to triple its U.S. sales over the next decade. Company officials said establishing a U.S. manufacturing base would be key to meeting this goal.
Reports surfaced earlier this week that VW was still deciding whether to set up assembly in Savannah, Ga., or Charleston, S.C., due to the cities access to shipping harbors. Charleston looks like the odds on favorite thanks to the automotive supplier network that has been developed there to support the manufacturing operations of another European automaker, BMW.
Meanwhile, Audi said it would build its popular A4 vehicle line in the U.S. Ford owned Volvo said it would move some manufacturing to U.S. shores to avoid Europe’s higher manufacturing rates and logistics costs and duties to import these vehicles in the U.S. And even China got into the act, with announcements this week from four Chinese automakers — Geely, BYD, Changfeng, Li Shi Guangming — sparking speculation that the companies may establish assembly plants in America. (How’s that for irony?)
To be fair, I wasn’t the only supply geek predicting a return to U.S. manufacturing. Last year, General Motors CPO Bo Andersson jumped the U.S. as low-cost hot spot train telling “with a weaker U.S. dollar, the U.S. supply base is more competitive on a global basis.” In fact, Andersson went as far as to reveal that these factors would cause GM to curb previous plans to source more materials from emerging markets, particularly China.
Upshot: U.S. manufacturing could soon see a revival led by some of the very countries U.S. firms once viewed as lower-cost alternatives to American-based supply. These recent moves also signal the official arrival of the global economy — one that requires manufacturers to develop supply based not solely on cost and performance, but also proximity to the consumer. One VW official interviewed by BusinessWeek said it best: “We are waking up to the fact that to be a global player, you have to design cars for the markets in which you sell, not just hope what you do in your home market catches on.”

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